2006-07-07
Rogue Nations Only Do What Works ...
... So Stop Rewarding Bad Behavior: Regarding Iran and North Korea, we should take a page from the Israelis and do what we can unilaterally. No, not invade them. However, we definitely need to think harder about doing what we can do.
First, we need to recognize that the leaders of Iran and North Korea are not irrational. Evil, maybe. Dangerous, certainly. But not irrational. On the contrary, they are rational and we are irrational. We're the ones rewarding bad behavior. And they are behaving badly, reaping the rewards. Perfectly rational. To change this, we should do the following. We announce to each rogue nation that we are prepared to offer them specified goodies (things we know they want) on condition and as long as they behave in a specified manner. Every time they don't behave well, we divert the funding for piece of their package to a neighbor who is being well. For example, every time North Korea shoots off a test missile, we send some of the money meant originally for them to South Korea or Japan or even Russia or China. Every time, Iran announces or is found to have made an advancement in its nuclear program, we send goodies or cash meant for them to Afghanistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Iraq, or Kuwait. And so on. We don't negotiate. We just do it.
Second, we need to focus on communicating with the population and supporting regime change. This is easier to do in the case of Iran, which has a more modern communications system than the very backward North Korea. However, there are ways.
Third, we can begin to punish bad behavior. The coyotes think this strategy will be less useful to the U.S., unless we get to the point of military action, because we have little to take away ourselves from Iran and North Korea. However, the same may not be said of the European Union, South Korea, China, and Russia.
This won't have an immediate effect, especially on the Iranians. But it will reverse the cycle of rewarding bad behavior.
First, we need to recognize that the leaders of Iran and North Korea are not irrational. Evil, maybe. Dangerous, certainly. But not irrational. On the contrary, they are rational and we are irrational. We're the ones rewarding bad behavior. And they are behaving badly, reaping the rewards. Perfectly rational. To change this, we should do the following. We announce to each rogue nation that we are prepared to offer them specified goodies (things we know they want) on condition and as long as they behave in a specified manner. Every time they don't behave well, we divert the funding for piece of their package to a neighbor who is being well. For example, every time North Korea shoots off a test missile, we send some of the money meant originally for them to South Korea or Japan or even Russia or China. Every time, Iran announces or is found to have made an advancement in its nuclear program, we send goodies or cash meant for them to Afghanistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Iraq, or Kuwait. And so on. We don't negotiate. We just do it.
Second, we need to focus on communicating with the population and supporting regime change. This is easier to do in the case of Iran, which has a more modern communications system than the very backward North Korea. However, there are ways.
Third, we can begin to punish bad behavior. The coyotes think this strategy will be less useful to the U.S., unless we get to the point of military action, because we have little to take away ourselves from Iran and North Korea. However, the same may not be said of the European Union, South Korea, China, and Russia.
This won't have an immediate effect, especially on the Iranians. But it will reverse the cycle of rewarding bad behavior.
